A decade following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed chaos, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the absence of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has occurred in universities but hardly any politicians or campaigners want to engage even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author advocates unification or the current situation. Each composes two essays that strive for objectivity in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and societal statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," said O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they prefer unification but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government should work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his era is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will eventually not succeed but all factions has has important lessons to gain from the opposing positions."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must join the debate, urged the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
